Daily Homicides in the nation Drop 37% In President Sheinbaum, Per Government Figures

The average figure of per-day killings each month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new administrative statistics. However, security specialists have advised that homicide figures could fail to indicate better national stability.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the lowest amount of murders were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have specific tracking town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced collaboration between government authorities.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts warned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is especially true given the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to properly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it may obscure periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean makes surges of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

A short time after, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the country to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” Vargas remarked.